Campaigning officially began in Guinea-Bissau on Saturday, setting the stage for legislative and presidential elections expected to heavily favor incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo after the country’s main opposition figures and parties were disqualified from the race.
For the first time in the nation’s history, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) — the party that led Guinea-Bissau to independence from Portugal in 1974 — will not appear on the ballot. Its absence marks a dramatic shift in the country’s political landscape and raises concerns about the credibility of the upcoming vote.
Also barred from participating is the Pai Terra Ranka coalition, a group of around ten political parties led by Embalo’s chief rival, Domingos Simoes Pereira. Both Pereira and his coalition were struck from the final list of candidates released in October by the Supreme Court, which ruled that their applications were submitted after the official deadline.
Pereira, a former prime minister and long-time adversary of Embalo, was widely considered the strongest challenger to the incumbent. His exclusion, along with that of the PAIGC, has effectively cleared the field for Embalo and his allies.
Over the past decade, Guinea-Bissau has taken tentative steps toward political stability and the rule of law. However, its history remains marred by a succession of coups and chronic political infighting.
On Friday, just a day before campaigning began, the military announced that it had foiled what it called “an attempt to subvert the constitutional order,” confirming the arrest of several senior officers. “This action aimed to disrupt the electoral process,” said Deputy Chief of Staff General Mamadu Ture during a press briefing, without providing further details on the alleged plot or the number of arrests.
President Embalo responded with a stern warning following a cabinet meeting on Thursday. “No disorder will be tolerated,” he told reporters, insisting that the elections will proceed as scheduled and in peace.
Guinea-Bissau’s 860,000 registered voters are set to cast their ballots on November 23 to choose between 12 presidential candidates, including Embalo and former president Jose Mario Vaz. Fourteen parties, including the No Kumpu Guine platform — a coalition backing Embalo — will compete for 102 parliamentary seats.
However, with his major opponents excluded, observers say Embalo’s re-election appears all but certain. “With serious opponents eliminated from the competition, Embalo’s victory is a foregone conclusion,” said political activist and lawyer Fransual Dias.
Political stability remains a central issue in the polls. Guinea-Bissau has experienced four successful coups since gaining independence in 1974, the most recent in 2012, along with several failed attempts.
Embalo, first elected in December 2019 for a five-year term, had previously pledged to serve only one term. His last electoral showdown with Pereira ended in controversy, with the opposition leader rejecting the results and accusing the government of electoral fraud.
In 2023, Embalo dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament after armed clashes in the capital, which he described as an attempted coup. Pereira, then speaker of parliament, condemned the move as a “constitutional coup,” accusing the president of undermining democracy.
The dissolution delayed the elections, which were later rescheduled to November 2025, sparking accusations that Embalo was seeking to extend his stay in power.
As Guinea-Bissau heads toward yet another critical vote, the absence of its historic opposition and the shadow of military intervention have cast doubt on whether this election will bring the stability and democratic renewal many citizens have long hoped for.
