The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has issued a regional weather alert warning of an impending above‑normal rainy season across the Horn of Africa, a forecast that carries both promise and risk for millions of people in the region. According to meteorological projections, enhanced rains are expected in several countries — including Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda — as the region transitions into its seasonal wet period.
IGAD’s warning comes as part of its routine climate monitoring and seasonal outlook reports, which draw on data from national meteorological agencies and international climate models. The forecast suggests that the rains, driven by large‑scale climate drivers over the Indian Ocean and surrounding weather systems, could be more intense and widespread than in recent years.
For many Horn of Africa communities, the season’s increased rainfall offers the potential for improved crop yields, replenished water sources and enhanced pasture for livestock — outcomes that could provide relief after prolonged dry spells and below‑average precipitation in previous seasons. Agricultural stakeholders have welcomed the prediction, noting that rain‑fed farming dominates much of the region’s food production and that adequate rains are critical for food security.
However, IGAD and national authorities have underscored that above‑normal rainfall also raises the risk of flooding, landslides and water‑borne disease outbreaks, particularly in low‑lying and poorly drained areas. Urban centres, informal settlements and rural floodplains could be especially vulnerable, with infrastructure and public health systems strained by sudden heavy downpours.
Officials are urging governments at national and local levels to activate preparedness plans, focusing on early warning systems, flood risk mapping, community awareness and emergency response capacity. IGAD emphasised the importance of multi‑sectoral coordination, calling on agriculture, water, health, disaster management and meteorological agencies to work together in mitigating the potential negative impacts of the wetter season.
In Kenya, where the long rains typically span from March to May, enhanced rainfall can be both blessing and challenge. Sufficient rains are essential for staple crop production, hydro‑electric power generation and water resource replenishment. At the same time, poorly managed water flows and flash floods can damage infrastructure, disrupt transport links and affect market access for farmers.
Somalia and parts of Ethiopia face similar dichotomies, particularly in regions where past seasons have alternated between drought and intense rainfall. In some lowland areas, heavy precipitation has in the past led to riverine flooding, displacement of communities and outbreaks of cholera and other diseases linked to poor water quality.
To improve readiness, IGAD is coordinating with national weather services to disseminate timely and accurate forecasts, including weekly bulletins and hazard maps. Early guidance is also being shared with farmers’ associations, pastoralist networks and community groups to support planning around planting dates, livestock movement and flood avoidance measures.
Agricultural experts have encouraged farmers to use the early forecast to inform decisions on crop varieties, planting schedules and soil conservation practices that are better suited to wetter conditions. They also urge investment in water harvesting and soil moisture retention technologies that can enhance productivity while reducing erosion risks.
Public health officials have highlighted the need for pre‑positioning medical supplies, improving access to clean water and sanitation, and enhancing vector control to reduce the risk of disease transmission during and after heavy rains. Schools and community centres are being identified as potential temporary shelters in flood‑prone areas, while local authorities are advised to maintain and clear drainage systems to reduce water stagnation.
As the Horn of Africa prepares for the wetter season, the message from IGAD and partner agencies is clear: embrace the opportunities that rains bring, but prepare for the hazards they may cause. With effective planning, communication and community engagement, the positive impacts on agriculture and water resources can be maximised, while minimizing the threats posed by floods and related emergencies.
Image by Sabi Sabi
